Obama versus Romney: Playing The Election Vegas Line

In honor of today’s Belmont Stakes (and still no possibility of a Triple Crown Winner in more than 35 years), I’m handicapping the presidential contest.  The latest Intrade's prediction market for President "Barack Obama to be re-elected president in 2012" currently showing a 52.5% chance of that, while Intrade's market for Governor "Mitt Romney to be elected president in 2012" currently is at 42.8%? Is there an almost 8% chance the President or Governor Romney won't be the nominee or that a third-party candidate will win?  If so who is this miracle third-party candidate?  My sources in Vegas place the President as a 3 to 2 favorite to win in November.

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